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Wednesday, August 15, 2018

James Turk: Beware the FED

"Also, I have been mentioning overhead resistance at $16.80. Spot silver today closed in London and New York above that level, indicating a breakout may be starting. 

However, a word of caution. Today’s big jump could be a head-fake. It could be just a 2-day squeeze with weak-hand shorts exiting to avoid getting hit by Fed news on Wednesday or an ECB announcement about QE on Thursday. Then again, maybe it is real this time.

That’s the thing about markets. You can’t predict the future. All you can do is buy good value, and that’s what silver is at the moment. It is, however, worth noting that despite the Fed’s interest rate hikes over the past year or so, gold and silver are holding their own. 

The reason is that the market is beginning to recognize two things: First, real interest rates – those adjusted for a true rate of inflation – are negative, and any increase in rates by the Fed on Wednesday will not change that reality. 

Second, interest rates cannot go any higher because it will kill the economy in an important mid-term election year. The Fed will not risk its future existence and suffer President Trump’s ire by raising interest rates further."

- Source, KWN