Monday, September 2, 2013

Governments Think They Have a Recovery

US consumers are more responsive to confidence in stock markets and property prices than in the UK, and here the news has been bullish. Interest rates are low, and they will rise, so buy those big-ticket items now. The cost of buying and financing the average house purchase has already risen an estimated 40%.

Governments and economists will think they have the recovery they have wished for. Unfortunately it will almost certainly be marred by price inflation greater than the increase in demand suggests. So while nominal GDP growth rates will turn out to be somewhat better than currently expected, the talk will be of temporary capacity constraints.

The end result is that while central banks will realise that price inflation is a growing problem they will be reluctant to use higher interest rates to choke off inflation. And if consumers see central banks are behind this curve, further consumer borrowing will be encouraged.

- Alasdair Macleod of James Turk's Goldmoney: